American Demographics 2012

A look by region at the current state of optical in particular and business overall

In this fourth annual regional report on business and the economy in each of the country's four regions, we bring together research from both inside and outside our business.
We hope it will help you and provide insights into your region and the nation.

■ THE ECONOMY: While the U.S. is considered in recovery, and some retail numbers give reason for optimism, in May, the economy added the fewest number of jobs in a year. Putting the brakes on recovery was also the fact that unemployment rose slightly in May, up to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent in April.

Some economists say it's simply the “spring slowdown” that has occurred nationwide over each of the past three years. Others say it's all about the growing European crisis. Here's a look at some of the national trends.

■ RETAIL: “The modest growth rates for the first part of 2012 are due in part to mild weather that has played a significant role in year-over-year comparisons,” says Jack Kleinhenz, PhD, chief economist for the National Retail Federation. According to the Census Bureau, “Total retail sales for the first quarter saw an increase of 1.7 percent from the last quarter of 2011.”

According to Kiplinger, the Washington-based forecasting company, retail sales will rise by six percent in 2012 (down from an increase of 7.4 percent in 2011). According to Kiplinger.com, “Growth will improve slightly in the second half of this year after a springtime slowdown, as job creation picks up, Europe embraces sweeping reforms to avert a financial crisis, and some of the fundamental strengths in U.S. economic prospects overcome the caution that is discouraging more spending, hiring, and investment.”

■ CONSUMERS: “The consumer's appetite to spend remains fairly broad-based, but consumers remain cautious and price sensitive. The ongoing European chaos and the threat of the ‘fiscal cliff’ dampen consumer sentiment,” says Kleinhenz.

“One positive factor is the relatively stronger condition of household balance sheets,” he says.

■ SPENDING: “Households appear to have more room to take on…some credit card debt,” says Kleinhenz. “It remains to be seen whether consumers will have the confidence to do so this summer in this sluggish economy.”

■ COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE: “We're seeing a snail's pace of a recovery, but at least a recovery,” says Ryan Severino, senior economist with Reis, Inc., a New York-based firm that forecasts the retail real estate market. “For the first time in seven years, the vacancy rate for small community [retail/shopping] centers declined in April.”

■ FASHION: Roseanne Morrison, fashion director, The Doneger Group in New York, points to four trends. “Film Noir is an ode to Hollywood stars of '40s and '50s that calls for the return to suits and pantsuits. Maximal is all about extremes, nothing outrageous in style, but outrageous in color. Into the Woods is an autumnal story, with a lot of browns, mossy green, fur, and layering. The final trend, Artisinal, is about handcrafted mixed media—like mixing in wovens and patchworking.”

■ FRAMES: Plastic frames are in fashion, notes Morrison. “The universal frame is the nerd frame, and the cats-eye retro fascination is doing super well in sun and eyewear.”

Plastic has surpassed the 50 percent mark in three out of four regions and 53 percent nationally for the first time since the Eyecare Business Regional Trends study began.

■ LENSES. After experiencing a dip last year, 31 percent of all lenses sold in the first quarter of 2012 were free-form lenses. Poly is the best-selling material, making up 49 percent of respondents' sales, followed by 1.67 and Trivex. AR continues to lead add-ons.

■ EDGING. Though fewer ECPs reported that they are doing their edging in house, those who are doing so report more in-house work than in 2011. The Northeast has the greatest percentage of ECPs edging in-house and also represents the region with the greatest increase in in-house work.