EDITOR’S LETTER

Economic Outlook

In this annual Demographics issue of EB, we look at what ECPs have to say about business in each of the country’s regions. We also feature findings from outside economic resources, including The National Retail Federation (NRF) and The Conference Board.

All our sources—from you, our readers, to nationally known economists—say business, employment, and spending are all trending upward.

While half-year numbers weren’t in at presstime, most experts agree with NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D., that “at least short term, numbers suggest accelerated growth.”

TOUGH TASK

While short-term assessments are pretty consistent, it’s longer term where the waters get more than a little murky.

Take the issue of inflation. “It has picked up,” adds Kleinhenz, but “begs the question of whether it will continue its trajectory or return to the previous modest pace.”

Then there’s the Affordable Care Act. According to a just-released Economic Situation Report from The Vision Council, “Recent developments with the ACA have not had too much immediate impact on optical. However, the long-term prognosis is still in doubt.”

FUNKY FORECASTING

There are nearly as many economic theories as experts. Take the Kondratieff wave theory. Based on historic cycles, it suggests we’re in a downturn until 2020. Then there are those who tie sun spot cycles to stocks, pointing to a marked decrease in sun spot activity for the remainder of the decade.

Since nobody knows for sure what’s in store, anything resembling a Five-Year Plan is useless. Most experts say quarterly plans are key…and even then, monthly reviews of plans and, more importantly, their implementation, are imperative.

Why? Because as management guru Peter Drucker put it, “Plans are only good intentions unless they immediately degenerate into hard work.”

{TREND WATCH}
DEMOGRAPHIC DISPARITIES

According to The Vision Council’s May 2014 Economic Situation Report, there are definitely regional differences in what affects eyewear purchasing.

MIDWESTERNERS ARE…

More concerned about stock market declines and losses in personal savings and retirement accounts than folks in other areas.

MOUNTAIN-PACIFIC RESIDENTS ARE…

Most concerned with rising retail prices when it comes to plans to purchase prescription eyewear. On the other hand, they report more spending increases on retail goods over the past year than other regions’ residents.

NORTHEASTERN FOLKS ARE…

Less affected by what they perceive as the state of the economy than people in other regions. In fact, 38% say the economy won’t change their eyeglass buying behavior.

SOUTHEASTERN CONSUMERS ARE…

The most likely to change their prescription eyewear purchasing based on the economy. They’re also more likely to put new lenses in old frames.

Stephanie K. De Long
Editorial Director