THE RECOVERY IS REAL.
Things are looking up.
In its annual forecast issued in March, the National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipated that retail sales will grow between 6% and 8% to nearly $5 trillion in 2022.
“NRF expects retail sales to increase in 2022, as consumers are ready to spend and have the resources to do so,” says NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay. “We should see durable growth this year given consumer confidence to continue this expansion, notwithstanding risks related to inflation, Covid-19, and geopolitical threats.”
In the optical retail sector of the market, business—while rife with its own current-day, pandemic-fueled challenges—is also seeing positive acceleration.
In fact, EB’s 2022 Annual Regional Market Trends survey found that a full 47% of eyecare professional respondents said their bottom line is trending up in 2022 over pre-pandemic in 2019. Of those, 21% said they were up 10% to 20% year over year, and 22% were seeing increases up to 10%.
On the flip side, 16% of ECPs reported that business was flat so far in 2022 over 2019—while 22% were down up to 10% and 14% were down 10% to 20%. Clearly, the challenges continue for a notable number of practices—with 53% reporting business as flat to down so far in 2022 over the pre-pandemic era.
COVID CONCERNS LIGHTEN
While protocols and stopgaps are on the downturn when it comes to Covid and practices across the U.S., it remains a consideration—and everyday concern.
In terms of protocols, as of early June, 38% of ECPs surveyed report still requiring masks for all patients and staff (and 19% requiring it only for unvaccinated staff and visitors), a notable difference from last year’s survey, which revealed that 60% were requiring masks for all.
And, while 34% of ECPs surveyed said staff has expressed health concerns about being at work (down from 50% in 2021), a full 52% of staff members say they have safety concerns about being at work (consistent with 51% who felt the same in 2021).
Interestingly, many pandemic-born protocols remain. Nationwide, 38% still require health safety checks for patients upon entry, 43% require health safety checks for staff daily, 45% still have plexiglass dividers for reception and dispensing tables, and 48% have safety shields for exam equipment.
PRACTICE PROGNOSIS
As business rebounds for many independent practices across the U.S., patient scheduling frequency is on the rise, along with telemedicine appointment options seeing a big jump to meet the new consumer/patient mindset.
Over a third (36%) of EB’s survey respondents are currently scheduling hourly appointments, and 43% are slotting in two or more patients per hour, while 19% are scheduling each patient for more than an hour time slot (for example, 90 minutes) to enhance the overall patient experience.
The demand is real as patients get back to booking regular appointments, but no-shows are also on the rise. “Our biggest challenge is keeping up with scheduling. We are booking out further than ever before and struggle with a high rate of no-shows. We even send text reminders along with phone calls,” says one survey respondent.
Meeting patient demands for convenience, 68% of ECP respondents say they now offer a telehealth appointment option.
THE ECONOMIC PICTURE
Broken Records and Upended Trends
April showers usually bring May flowers. This year, they also delivered a downpour of record highs and lows. In May, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded the longest down streak since the Great Depression, while the average price for a gallon of gas hit the $5 mark for the first time ever. Even worse, inflation in the U.S. posted a 40-year high at 8.6% in May.
Even the consumer price index (CPI) rang in above projections at +0.6% from April and up a full 6% from a year earlier.
On the job front, the unemployment rate continues to decline and came in at a low of 3.6% on May 31, 2022, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Looking ahead, The Conference Board forecasts that the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should grow by 2.3% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023. Both represent downgrades from earlier forecasts.
5.7
HOW ECPS RATE THEIR BUSINESS-RELATED STRESS LEVEL IN 2022, ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10.
“Finding staff [is our biggest challenge]. We have been running short-staffed since August 2021. It does not allow us to see as many patients and our ability to follow office protocols to give the best, most efficient care/service to our patients is suffering.”
—Regional Market Trends survey respondent
TOP 10 FRAME BRANDS NATIONWIDE (Q1 2022)
- Ray-Ban
(EssilorLuxottica) - Oakley
(EssilorLuxottica) - Kate Spade
(Safilo) - Nike
(Marchon Eyewear) - Enhance
(New York Eye) - Modern Optical
- Marchon NYC
(Marchon Eyewear) - EssilorLuxottica collections
- Flexon
(Marchon Eyewear) - Coach
(EssilorLuxottica)
Source: GPN
PARTICIPANT PROFILE
For over a decade, Eyecare Business has been taking the pulse of eyecare professionals each summer to pinpoint up-to-the-minute market trends across the country, which we present in our July/August issue annually. To make EB’s exclusive findings even more relevant to you and your particular part of the country, we survey readers from coast to coast by conducting in-depth research divided by census region.
Conducted in June 2022, this year’s survey included a respondent pool made up of 61% optometrists, 36% opticians, and 3% frame buyers. Over a third (33%) have a single location, 41% are at practices with two to three locations, 26% had four or more locations.
The Northeast
How are ECPs on the East Coast picking up the pieces and gaining momentum?
The Northeast Census Region—one of four designated in the U.S.—boasts a population of over 56 million people, with a whopping 85% of residents living in an urban setting. It is also, of course, home to the nation’s largest metro area.
With a total area of just over 181,000 square miles, it is the smallest region. But this culturally diverse locale is an economic powerhouse—it accounts for 20% of U.S. GDP.
Hardest hit during the pandemic, the Northeast Region’s nine states are expected to lag behind the other three regions when it comes to full recovery. It’s not expected to return to pre-pandemic employment rates until next year.
But the outlook for independent eyecare professionals in the region is positive. In fact, ECPs in the Northeast are faring better than most other regions, with 55% saying their practice’s bottom line is up in 2022 compared with pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Moreso, a full 31% say that their bottom lines are up more than 10% for the year thus far over 2019.
“Our biggest challenge was that the company was on the verge of bankruptcy.”
— Regional Market Trends survey respondent
55%
PERCENTAGE OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS IN THE NORTHEAST REGION WHOSE BOTTOM LINE IS TRENDING UP IN 2022 OVER PRE-PANDEMIC IN 2019.
UNEMPLOYMENT
Though unemployment was lower last year than in 2020, the 6.3% rate for the Northeast in 2021 was still higher than the national average. In April 2022, the unemployment rate was 3.80%, down from 4.30% in March.
NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT* | NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT* |
---|---|
District of Columbia (5.8%)Pennsylvania (4.8%)New York (4.5%)Connecticut (4.4%)Massachusetts (4.1%) | New Hampshire (2.3%)Vermont (2.5%)Rhode Island (3.2%)Maine (3.3%)Massachusetts (4.1%) |
*Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics for period ending April 30, 2022
IN FOCUS
Prices in the Northeast Region, as measured by the consumer price index, rose 0.6% in April. Though the smallest monthly increase so far this year, it does represent a YOY increase of 7.2%.
In focus in optical, a few key trends emerge in the Northeast:
Scheduling. More than any other region by far, ECPs in the Northeast are now scheduling patients hourly (52%, compared with a national average of 36%). Only 30% are scheduling visits in more than hourly.
Purchasing. ECPs in the Northeast have trimmed back product purchasing in all key categories for 2022. While 24% have no plans to change up frame buying, 37% say they have cut back by 10%, and 39% have cut back by 25% or more. The story is similar on the spectacle lens front—29% have stayed the course on purchasing, while 42% have cut back by 10%, and 29% have trimmed back by 25% or more. Even in the steady contact lens business, 46% say they’ve cut back by 10% and 15% by 25% or more.
Frame Buying. The Northeast has seen a spike in lower-end eyewear sales since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. ECPs here report that value eyewear is 26% of dispensary sales, the highest of any region—and 88% of respondents say that value eyewear sales have increased in the past three years. Surprisingly, 63% say high-end eyewear sales have decreased here in the past three years. A full 53% say that patients are buying more blue-light-filtering eyewear today vs. pre-pandemic.
Lens Buying. In terms of spectacle lenses, practices in the Northeast sell a higher percentage of both AR (37%) and tints (13%) than do those in most other regions. They also lean into Trivex (24%) and high-index lenses (20%) more than most of the other U.S. regions.
The Web. EB’s survey reveals Northeastern ECPs sell fewer products online than do those in most other regions. But, 81% say that they plan to sell products online within the next two years. This region’s respondents are savvy on the social media front—those posting daily (22%) to a few times a day (22%) combined is notably higher than any other region besides the South. Respondents spend more time than other regions for personal use on social media, with 24% spending three-plus hours a day on social.
5.9
HOW ECPS IN THE NORTHEAST RATE THEIR BUSINESS-RELATED STRESS LEVEL IN 2022, ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10. THAT’S UP FROM 4.6% A YEAR EARLIER.
“Our biggest challenge is reacquiring patients who have not been seen since 2019-2020.”
—Steven Friedman, O.D., In Style Optical, Regional Market Trends survey respondent
TOP 10 FRAME BRANDS: NORTHEAST REGION (Q1 2022)
- Ray-Ban (EssilorLuxottica)
- Oakley (EssilorLuxottica)
- Enhance (New York Eye)
- Marchon NYC (Marchon Eyewear)
- Kate Spade (Safilo)
- Nike (Marchon Eyewear)
- Flexon (Marchon Eyewear)
- Superflex (Westgroupe)
- Eight to Eighty (Affordable Designs)
- Coach (EssilorLuxottica)
Source: GPN
The West
How Western ECPs are rebuilding business as Covid loosens its reins on the region’s economy
From the Rocky Mountains and beyond the Pacific Coast, the Western U.S. comprises 13 states—including Alaska and Hawaii—and is home to more than 78 million people. Though the most sparsely populated, it is the largest of the four designated census regions in the U.S., covering 1.873 million square miles.
With a total GDP of $5.619 trillion, the region contains the state with the largest GDP in the country—California with $3.36 trillion. But, like other regions, the West has seen colossal leaps in prices. Energy costs, for example, have jumped 31.7% over the past 12 months. On the other hand, some Western states, like California, are beginning to see a cooling off in home prices.
The optical sector in the West is recovering a bit slower than most other regions—a full 63% say their business is either flat or down in 2022 compared with pre-pandemic business levels in 2019.
“Our biggest challenge is the economy. People are spending less.”
—Robert Torres, O.D., JCPenney Optical, Downey, CA, Regional Market Trends survey Respondent
38%
PERCENTAGE OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS IN THE WEST REGION WHOSE BOTTOM LINE IS TRENDING UP IN 2022 OVER PRE-PANDEMIC IN 2019.
UNEMPLOYMENT
A jobless rate of 3.6% in May 2022 reveals a continuing downward trend—the unemployment rate in the West was 5.8% in May 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
WESTERN STATES WITH HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT* | WESTERN STATES WITH LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT* |
---|---|
New Mexico (5.3%)Nevada (5.0%)Alaska (4.9%)California (4.6%)Hawaii (4.2%) | Utah (1.9%)Montana (2.0%)Idaho (2.6%)Arizona (3.2%)Wyoming (3.3%) |
*Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics for period ending April 30, 2022
IN FOCUS
As measured by the consumer price index, prices in the West rose 0.7% in April. That is up 8.3% from a year earlier.
In focus in optical, a few key trends emerge in the West:
Scheduling. As a result of playing economic catchup, more ECPs in the West (48%) say they are scheduling patient visits more frequently than one an hour.
Purchasing. ECPs in the West have also scaled back product purchasing in all key categories for 2022 over 2019 levels. While 30% say they will not change their purchasing plans for frames over 2019 amounts, 35% say they have cut back by 10% and another 35% have cut back by 25% or more. On the spectacle lens side, 29% will make no changes on purchasing from 2019 levels, while 48% have cut back by 10% and 24% scaled back by 25% or more. On the more stable contact lens front, a full 62% say they will cut back on buying over 2019 levels.
Frames. The West has seen a notable rise in midrange (73%) and high-end (83%) frame sales. Currently, midrange product accounts for 50% of dispensary sales and high-end specs account for 37%. A whopping 100% say they are seeing a rise in multiple-pair sales. Other categories on the rise include high-end sunwear (58%) and blue-light-filtering eyewear (58%).
Lenses. Optometric practices in the West sell more poly (33%) and Trivex (29%) than other materials. They also boast the highest percentage of practices where AR is the most-sold lens add-on (38%) of all regions.
The Web. ECPs in the West sell a decent number of products online currently (43% sell contacts), but only 69% of those that do not currently sell online plan to do so within the next two years, the lowest of any region. At the same time, ECPs in the West are the most social media-focused of all—33% post a few times a day, the highest of all regions.
5.6
HOW ECPS IN THE WEST RATE THEIR BUSINESS-RELATED STRESS LEVEL IN 2022, ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10. THAT’S UP FROM 4.8% A YEAR EARLIER.
“Our biggest challenge is having patients fill their glasses and contacts Rx with us instead of going online.”
—Regional Market Trends survey respondent
TOP 10 FRAME BRANDS: WESTERN REGION (Q1 2022)
- Ray-Ban (EssilorLuxottica)
- Oakley (EssilorLuxottica)
- Modern Optical
- Nike (Marchon Eyewear)
- Kate Spade (Safilo)
- Marchon NYC (Marchon Eyewear)
- Tom Ford (Marcolin)
- Calvin Klein (Marchon Eyewear)
- EssilorLuxottica Collections
- Maui Jim (Kering Eyewear)
Source: GPN
The South
An insider’s view of the state of the market and economy for eyecare professionals in the South.
Home to some of the most racially diverse areas of the country, the Southern U.S. accounts for more than 127 million people, making it the most populated census region in the U.S. Covering 920,100 square miles, the region contains the most states—plus the District of Columbia. The biggest state in the Southland, Texas, delivered the second largest GDP in the country at $1.99 trillion, with the total for the region coming in at $4.715 trillion.
Today, the South is a region of extremes. In April, for example, Delaware recorded one of the nation’s highest unemployment rates (4.5%). At the same time, Maryland registered the biggest month-to-month decrease (down 0.4%).
How are ECPs in the South doing compared to those in the nation’s other regions? Recovery has lagged behind other regions. While 23% say their practice’s bottom line is trending flat in 2022 compared to 2019 levels, another 39% say their business is down.
“Our biggest challenge is that fewer people are buying glasses because of the pandemic.”
—Regional Market Trends survey respondent
39%
PERCENTAGE OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS IN THE SOUTH REGION WHOSE BOTTOM LINE IS TRENDING UP IN 2022 OVER PRE-PANDEMIC IN 2019.
UNEMPLOYMENT
In the South, unemployment dropped from 5.1% in May 2021 to 3.6% as of May 2022, according to The Bureau of Labor Statistics—in line with the nationwide downward trend.
SOUTHERN STATES WITH HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT* | SOUTHERN STATES WITH LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT* |
---|---|
Delaware (4.5%)Texas (4.3%)Maryland (4.2%)Louisiana (4.1%)Mississippi (4.1%) | Oklahoma (2.7%)Alabama (2.8%)Florida (3.0%)Virginia (3.0%)Georgia, Tennessee (3.1%) |
*Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics for period ending April 30, 2022
IN FOCUS
The consumer price index reflected a 0.5% rise in prices over March and an 8.8% for the 12 months ending in April.
In focus in optical, a few key trends emerge in the South:
Scheduling. More than all other regions, ECPs in the South are scheduling patients more than hourly (two-plus patients per hour)—a full 55% compared to a national average of 43%. Only 28% are scheduling visits hourly.
Purchasing. Additionally, likely due to a slower recovery, practices in the South have cut back on frame product purchasing for 2022 over purchasing levels conducted in 2019 pre-pandemic. In fact, a full 40% have cut back by 25% or more, while 32% have cut back by 10%. About 25% have no plans to trim back frame product purchasing.
Frames. The South has seen the biggest increase in the high-end eyewear sales area—71% of ECP respondents said that they’ve seen an increase in high-end specs in their dispensaries in the last three years. Higher-end frames now make up 35% of dispensary sales, say ECPs in the South. One other area of opportunity is Rx sunwear—ECPs here say it accounts for 19% of total dispensary sales today, the highest of any region.
Lenses. In terms of spectacle lenses, practices in the South sell a lower percentage of both AR (30%) and tints (2%) than do those in other regions. They also lean into Trivex (23%) and high-index lenses (26%) more than most of the other U.S. regions.
The Web. The South has realized the potential of online sales. According to EB’s survey, ECPs in the South sell more products online than those in any other region. A full 40% sell Rx eyewear online and 52% sell plano sunwear. A whopping 98% say they plan to sell more products online within the next two years. Additionally, the amount of Southern ECPs who post at least once daily to social media rings in at 61%, with only 2% not posting at all.
5.8
HOW ECPS IN THE SOUTH RATE THEIR BUSINESS-RELATED STRESS LEVEL IN 2022, ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10. THAT’S UP FROM 4.6% A YEAR EARLIER.
“Our biggest challenge is competing with telemedicine options.”
—Shelly Guillory, O.D., Lake Charles, LA, Regional Market Trends survey respondent
TOP 10 FRAME BRANDS: SOUTH REGION (Q1 2022)
- Ray-Ban (EssilorLuxottica)
- Oakley (EssilorLuxottica)
- Enhance (New York Eye)
- Modern Optical
- Kate Spade (Safilo)
- Nike (Marchon Eyewear)
- EssilorLuxottica Collections
- Marchon NYC (Marchon Eyewear)
- Michael Kors (EssilorLuxottica)
- Coach (EssilorLuxottica)
Source: GPN
The Midwest
A solid view of how ECPs in the heartland are faring as the economic recovery from the pandemic’s effects continue.
Nestled between the Appalachian and Rocky Mountains, the Midwest is home to more than 68 million people, with most residents living in Chicago—the third most populated city in the country. Also known as the heartland, the region spans 728,900 square miles across 12 states and accounts for nearly $2.188 trillion in U.S. GDP.
Eyecare professionals in the Midwest have experienced a positive uptick in business after pandemic-caused downturns, with 56% saying their bottom lines are up today in 2022 over 2019 levels prior to Covid-19. That’s the highest of any region—just a hair above the Northeast.
“Our biggest challenge is that the cost of acquiring customers is getting higher and higher—and operating costs are getting higher and higher, too.”
—Regional Market Trends survey respondent
56%
PERCENTAGE OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS IN THE MIDWEST REGION WHOSE BOTTOM LINE IS TRENDING UP IN 2022 OVER PRE-PANDEMIC IN 2019.
UNEMPLOYMENT
Year over year, unemployment rates in April dropped 1.6% in the Midwest from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s substantially less than the nationwide YOY average of 2.4%. Paralleling the downward trend throughout the rest of the country, the Midwest saw unemployment drop from 5% in May 2021 to 3.4% as of May 2022.
MIDWESTERN STATES WITH HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT* | MIDWESTERN STATES WITH LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT* |
---|---|
Illinois (4.6%)Michigan (4.3%)Ohio (4.0%)Missouri (3.5%)Iowa (3.0%) | Nebraska (1.9%)Indiana, Minnesota (2.2%)Kansas (2.4%)Wisconsin, North Dakota (2.8%)Iowa (3.0%)Indiana (3.9%) |
*Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics for period ending April 30, 2022
IN FOCUS
Prices in the Midwest, as reflected in the consumer price index, rose 0.5% in April. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also reports that, year over year, the index increased by 6% in April.
In focus in optical, a few key trends emerge in the Midwest:
Scheduling. About 40% of ECPs in the Midwest are scheduling patients more than hourly (two-plus patients per hour)—and 33% are scheduling visits hourly. Notably, 23% are scheduling appointment slots for longer than an hour.
Purchasing. Due to a more positive recovery in motion, practices in the Midwest have trimmed back frame product purchasing for 2022 over 2019 pre-pandemic levels less than most other regions, with 28% having no plans to cut back on buying at all, 33% cutting back by 10%, and 38% trimming back by 25% or more.
Frames. The Midwest has seen a stellar jump in midrange product sales in the past three years, with 93% of ECPs here saying this category has been on the rise. Today, it accounts for 56% of the dispensary product mix in this region.
Lenses. When it comes to spectacle lenses, practices in the Midwest lean into polycarbonate as the dominant lens material of choice, with 38% saying it’s their go-to. Midwest ECPs also sell a higher percentage of photochromics (40%) as their most-sold extra.
The Web. With a full 30% of Midwest ECPs saying they do not sell online, the highest of any region, this area lags behind on the digital front today. Still, 76% of those not currently offering products online do say they plan to sell online in the next two years, while 24% do not. ECPs here are also slightly behind the curve on social media, with 28% posting daily and 15% posting more than once a day.
5.4
HOW ECPS IN THE MIDWEST RATE THEIR BUSINESS-RELATED STRESS LEVEL IN 2022, ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10. THAT’S UP FROM 4.8 A YEAR EARLIER, BUT STILL THE LOWEST STRESS RATE OF ALL REGIONS.
“Our biggest challenge is a steady patient flow. People are so afraid of Covid, they won’t come into the office as often as they use to.”
—Regional Market Trends survey respondent
TOP 10 FRAME BRANDS: MIDWEST REGION (Q1 2022)
- Ray-Ban (EssilorLuxottica)
- Oakley (EssilorLuxottica)
- Nike (Marchon Eyewear)
- Kate Spade (Safilo)
- Marchon NYC (Marchon Eyewear)
- Enhance (New York Eye)
- Flexon (Marchon Eyewear)
- Ted Baker (Tura)
- Modern Optical
- Scott Harris (Europa International)
Source: GPN