The volume of import cargo at major U.S. container ports is expected to drop significantly beginning in May, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The report follows the implementation of new U.S. trade policies that impose a minimum 10% tariff on all trading partners, with reciprocal tariffs reaching as high as 50% on dozens of countries. The latest measures build on earlier tariffs targeting China, Canada, and Mexico. In response, China has issued retaliatory tariffs, prompting additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, resulting in cumulative rates exceeding 100% in some cases.
Retailers accelerated shipments earlier this year in anticipation of rising trade costs. However, the report suggests this trend is now reversing. Imports for the second half of 2025 are projected to decline by at least 20% year over year. Even when factoring in the earlier increase in cargo volume, total imports for 2025 could end the year down by 15% or more, according to Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett.
“In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Hackett said. “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.”
Ports covered by the Global Port Tracker handled 2.06 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in February 2025—a 7.5% decrease from January but a 5.2% increase compared to February 2024. March imports are projected at 2.14 million TEU, an 11.1% year-over-year increase, whereas April is forecast at 2.08 million TEU, up 3.1%.
However, a sharp drop is expected beginning in May, with projected import volume falling to 1.66 million TEU, a 20.5% year-over-year decline, marking the end of 19 consecutive months of year-over-year growth. June is forecast at 1.57 million TEU, down 26.6%, and July at 1.69 million TEU, a 27% drop compared to the previous year. August is projected at 1.7 million TEU, also down 26.8%.
Prior to the tariff announcements, forecasts for those same months had indicated continued growth or smaller declines. These forecasts do not take into account the Trump Administration’s April 9 announcement of a 90-day pause on the recently imposed tariffs.
As a result of the revised projections, total cargo volume for the first half of 2025 is now estimated at 11.73 million TEU, representing a 2.9% decline compared to the same period in 2024. Earlier forecasts had predicted a 5.7% year-over-year increase.
United States imports were elevated throughout 2024 as retailers acted to mitigate potential disruptions from labor disputes and post-election trade policy changes. Last year’s total reached 25.5 million TEU, up 14.7% from 2023 and close to the 2021 record of 25.8 million TEU.