The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that US retail sales will increase 4.2%, reaching $1.013 trillion, during the 2026 holiday season as consumers continue to spend despite inflation, rising gas prices, and pressure on household spending. The projected growth exceeds the 3.1% increase recorded during the 2025 holiday season, when retail sales totaled $972 billion.

“Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value, and choices for every budget,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release. The organization also projects that retailers will hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal employees to meet holiday demand. That range is consistent with the estimated 356,000 seasonal positions added in 2025.