May 16, 2024 — The National Federation (NRF) has announced that retail sales moderated in April, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Consumer spending remains positive even as household income and job growth are compressing, says NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “The softer pace of spending is due in part to consumers being selective and prioritizing retail purchases. Yet, consumers remain willing to spend, keeping the economy afloat despite fatigue from stubbornly high inflation for services and higher interest rates,” he says.

The Census Bureau reports overall retail sales in April remained unchanged seasonally adjusted from March and up 3% unadjusted year over year, compared with increases of 0.6% month over month and 3.8% year over year in March.

NRF’s calculation of core retail sales—excluding auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants—were down 0.2% seasonally adjusted from March but up 3.8% unadjusted year over year. For the first four months of the year, core retail sales were up 3.8% compared to last year—aligned with NRF’s forecast of 2.5% and 3.5% growth over 2023.

Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reported a 0.4% increase in core retail sales in April seasonally adjusted from March and almost unchanged compared to 2023.