June 11, 2024 — According to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, monthly inbound cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to reach its highest level in nearly two years this summer.

“Consumers are spending more than last year, and retailers are stocking up to meet demand as we head into peak shipping season,” says NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “The high level of imports expected over the next several months indicates retailers' confidence in strong sales for the rest of the year. However, retailers are also facing supply chain challenges, including congestion at overseas ports, affecting operations and shipping rates.”

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett attributed a seven-month period of import levels above 2 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) to changes in the annual shipping "peak season." He pointed to factors like post-pandemic restocking, upcoming tariffs on Chinese goods, and preparation for the holiday season as reasons for the spread-out volume.

In April, U.S. ports handled 2.02 million TEUs, a 4.6% increase from March and a 13.2% rise year over year. This was the highest number since October 2022. May's numbers are projected to rise to 2.09 million TEUs, with further increases expected in June and the following months.

The first half of 2024 is expected to total 12.1 million TEUs, a 15% increase from the same period last year. Imports in 2023 totaled 22.3 million TEUs, down 12.8% from 2022.

NRF forecasts that 2024 retail sales—excluding auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants—will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.