Import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is projected to decline through the end of the year following a near-record summer peak, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success,” says NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “These tariffs and disruptions to the supply chain are adding costs that will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers.”

Cargo volume at the ports monitored by the report reached 2.36 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in July, up 20.1% from June and 1.8% higher than the same month last year, making it the second-busiest month on record. August data is not yet available, but volume is projected at 2.28 million TEU, down 1.7% from last year.

Declines are expected to deepen in the months ahead, according to NRF. Forecasts call for 2.12 million TEU in September (down 6.8% year over year), 1.95 million in October (down 13.2%), 1.74 million in November (down 19.7%), and 1.7 million in December (down 20.1%). If realized, December would be the lowest monthly total since March 2023.

The report notes that falling year-over-year comparisons reflect both tariff-related impacts and an earlier peak shipping season, as well as unusually high import levels late last year due to concerns about potential port strikes.

For the first half of 2025, U.S. ports handled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% from a year earlier. The full-year forecast calls for 24.7 million TEU, a 3.4% decrease from 2024. January 2026 is projected at 1.8 million TEU, down 19.1% from the prior year.