GPN’s latest forecast models project a steady but cautious outlook for eye care through 2026, based on nine quarters of sales data from 2,250 U.S. practices. Using exponential smoothing to analyze year-over-year unit sales across four key categories—eye exams, contact lenses, ophthalmic lenses, and frames—the model estimates performance trends for the next five quarters, Q4 in 2025 and all through 2026.
Forecast Insights
• Exams: Stable overall, averaging about -1.1% change. Early 2026 may bring small gains before softening later in the year.
• Frames: Continued headwinds (-1.6% to -4.4%) point to pressure on discretionary spending and the need for tighter inventory management.
• Lenses: Mild contraction (-1.1% to -3.9%) suggests the importance of bundled pricing and coordinated promotions.
• Contacts: The strongest category shows a mid-2026 rebound (+2.75%), indicating resilient patient demand.
Strategic Takeaways
While growth may be modest, consistency is improving. Here are some tips to help practices prepare for the new year:
• Rebalance frame and lens inventories to mitigate softer demand.
• Maintain strong recall and scheduling efforts to protect exam volume.
• Bolster contact lens retention programs to leverage midyear opportunity.
• Track local results quarterly and adjust marketing, staffing, and product mix accordingly.
Bottom Line
The eyecare market appears to be stabilizing. Practices that plan proactively and respond to smaller shifts in patient and product activity will be best positioned to thrive through 2026.
For a deeper look at these results and a detailed breakdown of each product category, click here.
Practice Resources
The GPN Visions business solutions channel (visions.gatewaypn.com) offers timely webinars and resources to ECPs. The open-forum webinars feature some of the industry’s most successful ODs, practice management consultants, and business owners. GPN Visions members are invited to attend live webinars, view recorded presentations, download useful tools, and participate in live Q&A sessions with industry pros.
• All industry data provided by GPN: gatewaypn.com