Nov. 15, 2023 — The National Retail Federation (NRF) issued a statement regarding the U.S. Census Bureau’s release of October 2023 sales data. According to NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz, October’s retail sales continue a long streak of year-over-year gains even though the rate of growth is slowing.
 
“Fourth-quarter consumer spending stepped off on a more moderate pace, as expected,” says Kleinhenz. “The staying power of the American consumer has been the story of 2023, but financial conditions have tightened appreciably in recent months, curbing the purchasing power fueled by job and wage gains. Nonetheless, continued consumer resilience is still expected for the holiday season.”
 
According to the bureau, overall retail sales in October were down 0.1% from September but up 2.5% compared to October 2022. September’s numbers showed increases of 0.9% compared to August and 4.1% growth from September 2022.
 
NRF’s calculation of retail sales—which excludes auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants— were up 3.1% unadjusted year over year on a three-month moving average as of October and up 3.7% for the first 10 months of the year. These figures are aligned with NRF’s 2023 annual retail sales forecast of 4% growth compared to 2022. Further, the bureau’s numbers align with the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor that launched Nov. 13, which predicted October retail sales to drop 0.03% seasonally adjusted from September but increase by 2.63% unadjusted compared to October 2022.