Jan. 25, 2024 — The National Retail Federation has announced its holiday season forecast has been confirmed by data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which shows 3.8% growth over 2022, totaling a record $964.4 billion. According to the NRF, this is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019 despite a slower growth rate compared with the past three years, when trillions of stimulus dollars led to unprecedented rates of retail spending during the pandemic.
“Consumer spending was remarkably resilient throughout 2023 and finished the year with a solid pace for the holiday season,” says NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Although inflation has been the biggest concern for households, the price of goods eased notably and was helped by a healthy labor market, underscoring a successful holiday season for retailers.”
Defined by NRF as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, the 2023 holiday season tops the previous record of $929.5 billion in 2022, and overall sales in 2023 grew 3.6% over 2022 to a record $5.13 trillion. NRF’s calculation of retail sales is based on Census Bureau data but excludes auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.
Not adjusted for inflation, the holiday total includes online and other non-store sales, which were up 8.2% at $276.8 billion compared to $255.8 billion in 2022. NRF’s forecast indicated the category would grow between 7% and 9% to between $273.7 billion and $278.8 billion.
The $5.13 trillion total for the year aligns with NRF’s recent prediction that 2023 annual retail sales would increase about or just below 4% over 2022, which was the previous record at $4.95 trillion.
Holiday sales in November and December saw year-over-year gains in all but two of nine retail categories, led by electronics and appliance stores, health and personal care stores, and online sales. The following are specifics from key sectors for the two months combined and unadjusted compared to the 2022 holiday season:
- Electronics and appliance stores were up 9.3%.
- Health and personal care stores were up 9%.
- Online and other non-store sales were up 8.2%.
- Clothing and clothing accessory stores were up 3%.
- General merchandise stores were up 2%.
- Sporting goods stores were up 0.3%.