June 20, 2024 — Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau shows retail sales grew in May and helped drive a still-expanding economy, says National Retail Federation (NRF) chief economist Jack Kleinhenz.

“May’s retail sales give us a snapshot of a reasonably healthy consumer even though spending growth is fluctuating somewhat,” says Kleinhenz. “These numbers indicate that the economy continues to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, generally supporting consumers’ ability and willingness to spend. Inflation pressure has fallen, especially for retail goods, but higher prices for services continue to weigh on the minds of households.”

The Census Bureau reported that overall retail sales in May increased by 0.1% seasonally adjusted from the previous month and by 2.3% unadjusted year over year. This follows a 0.2% month-over-month decrease and a 2.7% year-over-year increase in April.

The NRF's core retail sales—excluding auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants—rose by 0.3% seasonally adjusted month over month and by 2.9% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales increased by 3.5% year-over-year for the first five months of the year, aligning with NRF’s forecast of 2.5% to 3.5% growth in 2024 over 2023.

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor recently reported core retail sales were up 1.2% seasonally adjusted month over month in May and up 2.88% year over year. This compares with a 0.4% month-over-month increase and a 0.05% year-over-year decrease in April. Unlike the Census Bureau's survey-based data, the Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not require monthly or annual revisions.