Import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to continue declining in 2026 amid tariff impacts and ongoing uncertainty surrounding federal trade policy, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

The report notes that recent reductions in tariffs on select food items have provided limited relief, while the future of other tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act hinges on a case pending before the U.S. Supreme Court. Even if those tariffs are overturned, the administration is expected to pursue reinstatement through other trade mechanisms.

“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,” says Hackett. “Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.”

NRF projects that record holiday retail sales will surpass $1 trillion for the first time, an increase of 3.7% to 4.2% compared with 2024.

U.S. ports tracked by the report handled an estimated 2.07 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in October. The total marked a 1.8% decline from September and a 7.9% decrease from the prior year. November volumes are projected at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.6% year over year, and December at 1.86 million TEU, down 12.7%. If realized, those figures would represent the slowest monthly volumes since June 2023.

The report attributes part of the year-over-year decline to elevated imports in late 2024, when concerns about potential port strikes prompted earlier shipping, as well as to retailers’ efforts to move goods ahead of possible tariff changes.

For the first half of 2025, Global Port Tracker reported total volume of 12.53 million TEU, an increase of 3.7% year over year. Full-year 2025 imports are forecast at 25.2 million TEU, a 1.4% decrease from 2024.

Cargo volumes are expected to rise month over month in January for the first time in six months, reaching a projected 2 million TEU, though still 10.3% below the previous year. Forecasts for the following months include 1.86 million TEU in February (down 8.5% year over year), 1.79 million TEU in March (down 16.8%), and 1.97 million TEU in April (down 10.9%).