Import volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to record its first month-over-month increase in 6 months during January, but volumes are projected to remain below year-earlier levels until spring, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”
“As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation.”
United States ports tracked by the report handled 2.02 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in November, the most recent month with final data available. That volume was down 2.3% from October and 6.5% compared with November 2024. December volumes have not yet been finalized, but are projected at 1.99 million TEUs, a decline of 6.6% year over year.
Although November and December are typically slower months, the report noted that recent year-over-year declines are partly due to elevated import levels in late 2024, when shippers accelerated cargo movement amid concerns about potential port labor disruptions. In addition, many retailers moved imports earlier in 2025 in response to tariff-related considerations.
Total import volume for the first half of 2025 reached 12.53 million TEUs, an increase of 3.7% year over year. Full-year 2025 volume is forecast at 25.4 million TEUs, slightly below the 25.5 million TEUs recorded in 2024. January 2026 import volume is forecast at 2.11 million TEUs, representing a month-over-month increase but a 5.3% decline compared with January 2025. February is projected at 1.94 million TEUs, down 4.6% year over year; March at 1.88 million TEUs, down 12.4%; and April at 2.03 million TEUs, down 8.1%. May is forecast at 2.07 million TEUs, which would mark a 6.2% year-over-year increase and the first annual gain since August 2025.